Publicus Institute, commissioned by Népszava, conducted a nationwide representative opinion poll of 1,000 people between 30 January and 6 February, asking people about their views on current foreign policy issues.
Two-thirds of respondents support Sweden’s NATO membership. Even among Fidesz voters, there are more people who support it than who do not (38 per cent to 29 per cent).
Sweden can only become a member of NATO if its membership is voted for by the parliaments of all member states. Nine out of ten respondents had heard that Turkey and Hungary had been the longest delayed, with Hungary coming last.
Three out of ten respondents said that the Fidesz majority of the Hungarian parliament is delaying Sweden’s accession to NATO because the Scandinavian state has criticised Hungary’s politics. 14 percent say that the reason is actually that the Hungarian leadership wants to put pressure on the EU over the freezing of EU funds.
Six out of ten say that it is rather disadvantageous for Hungary that the Hungarian parliament is blocking Sweden’s accession to NATO. Four out of ten say the blockade is a result of the government’s stance, and three out of ten say it is a result of the Fidesz parliamentary group’s position, independent of the government.Viktor Orbán said that Hungary would not be the last member state to approve Swedish membership of NATO, yet Hungary is. A third of the respondents said that this was a major loss of prestige for the prime minister, while almost a quarter said it was a minor loss.
Nine in ten (93%) of those surveyed had heard that Sweden wants to join NATO. The older someone was, the more likely they were to have heard about it: 88 percent of 18-29 year olds and 98 per cent of those aged 60 and over said they had heard the news.
Two thirds of respondents (64%) support Sweden’s NATO membership. This was the opinion of almost all (94%) of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, nearly six in ten (56%) of the undecided voters and four in ten (38%) of Fidesz voters.
While almost two thirds of those living in the county capital and Budapest (74 and 73 percent respectively) support the Nordic state becoming a member of the military alliance, the corresponding figures for smaller towns and villages are 62 percent and 56 percent respectively.
13 percent of those polled do not support the Nordic state joining the military alliance. Among Fidesz voters, the figure is 29 per cent (though this is less than the number who prefer it – 38 per cent).
Sweden can only become a member of NATO if its membership is approved by the parliaments of all member countries.
Nine out of ten (89%) of those polled had heard that Turkey and Hungary had delayed the vote the longest, with Hungary coming last. This was the response of almost all (95 percent) of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, nine out of ten (87 percent) Fidesz voters and a large majority (84 percent) of undecided voters.
Three in ten (29%) of respondents believe that the Fidesz majority in the Hungarian parliament is delaying Sweden’s accession to NATO because the Scandinavian state has criticised Hungary’s politics.
14 percent say that the reason for this is actually that the Hungarian leadership wants to put pressure on the EU over the freezing of EU funds.
11 percent say it is in the interests of Russia (because of Putin) and 4 percent say it is in the interests of Turkey (because of Turkish President Erdogan’s anti-Kurdish policy) that the Fidesz majority in the Hungarian parliament is delaying the Scandinavian state’s accession to the military alliance.
6 per cent cited other reasons (e.g. self-serving objection, defiance, or keeping the electorate together)
Six in ten (58%) of those polled said that it is rather disadvantageous for Hungary that the Hungarian parliament is blocking Sweden’s accession to NATO. This was the opinion of almost all (96%) of the voters of the opposition parties who co-operated in the elections, of every second (50%) undecided voter and of a quarter (25%) of Fidesz voters.
15 percent of respondents said that it is rather advantageous for Hungary that the Hungarian parliament is blocking the Scandinavian state’s accession to the military alliance. This is the view of nearly four in ten (36 percent) Fidesz voters, nearly one in ten (8 percent) undecided voters and 1 percent of voters of opposition parties who cooperated in the elections.
Four out of ten (43%) respondents said that Fidesz’s obstruction of Sweden’s accession to NATO is due to the government’s stance. This is the view of two-thirds (64 percent) of voters from the opposition parties that co-operated in the elections, nearly four in ten (36 percent) undecided voters and nearly three in ten (27 percent) Fidesz voters.
Nearly three in ten (28 percent) say the blocking is because of the Fidesz faction’s position independent of the government. This was stated by a third (34 percent) of Fidesz voters, three in ten (28 percent) of voters from opposition parties who cooperated in the elections and a fifth (21 percent) of undecided voters.
Nearly three in ten (28 percent) respondents either did not want to or could not answer the question. The proportion was 42 percent for undecided voters and 38 percent for Fidesz voters.
Viktor Orbán said that Hungary would not be the last member state to approve Swedish membership of NATO, yet Hungary is. A third of respondents (35 percent) said this was a major loss of prestige for the prime minister. Two thirds (64 percent) of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, three in ten (30 percent) undecided voters and 6 percent of Fidesz voters think so.
Nearly a quarter of those polled (22 percent) believe that this whole saga is only a slight loss of prestige for Viktor Orbán. A quarter (26%) of undecided voters and a fifth (22% and 20%) of Fidesz voters and voters of the opposition parties who co-operated in the elections also see it this way.
Nearly three in ten (28 percent) see this delay as no loss of prestige for the prime minister at all. A slight majority (53 percent) of Fidesz voters, nearly a quarter (22 percent) of undecided voters and one in ten (9 percent) of voters of opposition parties that cooperated in the elections said the same.
More details on the results of the research can be found in the print and online editions of Népszava. Please also refer to Népszava when describing the research.
Methodology
The survey was conducted by Publicus Institute as a part of Publicus Omnibusz, between the 30th of January and the 6th of February 2024, polling 1000 individuals via phone, who are representative of the adult population of Hungary. The potential distortions of sampling were corrected with weighting based on the data from the 2016 KSH census data. The attributes of the surveyed accurately resemble those of the Hungarian population by their sex, age, educational attainment, regional and settlement wise composition. With this sample size, we can state with a 95 percent confidence level that the data obtained through testing would only differ by +/-3,1 percent at most from that we would have gotten when surveying all 18 year old or older residents. The statistical error is larger however, when the distribution is configured not to all surveyed, but to certain smaller subgroups.
