Publicus Institute, on behalf of Népszava, December 12-15. Asked people’s opinions about the Israeli- Palestinian conflict in a nationally representative public opinion poll conducted by interviewing 1,003 people.
84 percent of those polled prefer to condemn Hamas’ terrorist attacks against Israel in October. Regarding the Israeli counterstrikes, a third of the respondents were rather condemning.
Four out of ten respondents rather agree that Israel’s response to the terrorist attack by Hamas is justified and proportionate, and a third of the respondents agree that although the response is justified, it is disproportionately excessive.
Almost two-thirds of the respondents (if they had to choose) condemn terrorist attacks against Israel more, and 14 percent condemn the Israeli response in the Gaza Strip.
Seven out of ten respondents said that Hamas, which has long wanted to destroy the state of Israel, has a major role in the outbreak of the conflict. Nearly a quarter of those surveyed named Israel as an obstacle to the creation of an independent Palestinian state.
Two-thirds of those surveyed rather agree with Israel launching a comprehensive offensive to completely eliminate Hamas.
According to nearly six out of ten respondents, it is expected that masses of Palestinians will flee to Europe. According to eight out of ten respondents, Islamic terrorism in Europe can be expected to increase because of this.
84 percent of those polled condemn Hamas’ terrorist attacks against Israel in October. This is the opinion of the vast majority of Fidesz voters and voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections (86 and 90 percent), and seven out of ten (69 percent) undecided voters.
A third of respondents (35 percent) prefer to condemn Israel’s response. This was stated by 43 percent of Fidesz voters, a third of undecided voters (34 percent), and three out of ten voters (30 percent) of the opposition parties cooperating in the elections.
Every second (50 percent) polled prefers not to condemn Israel’s response. Six out of ten (59 percent) voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, almost every second (46 percent) Fidesz voter, and four out of ten (38 percent) undecided voters said so.
Four out of ten respondents (40 percent) rather agrees that Israel’s response to the terrorist attack by Hamas is justified and proportionate. This is the view of four out of ten (39 percent) Fidesz voters, and almost three out of ten (27 percent) undecided voters, and every second (49 percent) voter of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections.
A third of those surveyed (34 percent) rather agrees that Israel’s response to Hamas’ terrorist attacks is justified, but disproportionately exaggerated. This is the opinion of a little more than a third of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections and of the Fidesz voters (36 and 35 percent), and almost three out of ten (27 percent) are undecided voters.
According to 8 percent of the respondents, Israel’s response to the terrorist attacks by Hamas is illegitimate and excessive. This was said by 13 percent of undecided voters, 9 percent of Fidesz voters, and 6 percent of voters of opposition parties cooperating in the elections.
Almost every second respondent (45 percent) prefers not to consider the massive Israeli airstrikes destroying Gaza cities as a proportionate response to the terrorist attack on Israel. This is how nearly half of Fidesz voters and voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections (46 and 45 percent) and four out of ten (40 percent) undecided voters said.
Nearly four out of ten (36 percent) respondents consider the Israeli airstrikes a proportionate response. This was said by four out of ten voters (42 percent) of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, a third of Fidesz voters (35 percent) and almost a quarter of undecided voters (22 percent).
Nearly two-thirds of those surveyed (64 percent) would condemn terrorist attacks against Israel more if they had to choose. This was said by three quarters (73 percent) of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, two thirds (65 percent) of the Fidesz voters, and 43 percent of the undecided voters.
14 percent of the respondents condemn the Israeli response in the Gaza Strip more. This is what 21 percent of undecided voters, 13 percent of Fidesz voters, and 11 percent of voters of opposition parties that cooperated in the elections said.
(Nearly a quarter of those surveyed – 22 percent – could not or did not want to answer the question)
According to seven out of ten (70 percent) respondents, Hamas, which has long wanted to destroy the state of Israel, has a major role in the outbreak of the conflict. Three out of ten (31 percent) named the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is striving for increasing influence in the region.
According to almost a quarter of those surveyed, Israel, which is preventing the creation of an independent Palestinian state (27 percent), and the USA, which pursues a unilateral policy, played a major role in the outbreak of the conflict. Nearly every fifth (17 percent) of respondents named Russia, as they want to divert attention from the war in Ukraine.
Nearly four out of ten respondents (36 percent) rather agree with the statement that Hamas was able to draw attention to the forgotten oppression of the Palestinians with such an attack. 43 percent of Fidesz voters, 36 percent of voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, and 27 percent of undecided voters said so.
43 percent of the respondents rather disagree with this statement. This was said by 46 percent of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, 42 percent of the Fidesz voters, and 38 percent of the undecided voters.
Seven out of ten respondents (70 percent) consider Israel more responsible for not taking seriously the intelligence reports about the preparation of the attack by Hamas. Eight out of ten of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections (79 percent), two-thirds of the Fidesz voters (67 percent), and 54 percent of the undecided voters said so.
Two-thirds of those polled (63 percent) rather agree with Israel launching a comprehensive offensive to completely eliminate Hamas. This was said by three-quarters (74 percent) of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, two-thirds (63 percent) of the Fidesz voters, and 43 percent of the undecided voters.
According to 36 percent of the respondents, the complete elimination of Hamas is a realistic goal, but according to 43 percent, it is not.
Every second (50 percent) respondent rather agrees with the Hungarian government recognizing Israel’s right to self-defense and supporting the Netanyahu government’s war in every way. This is what the slight majority (54 and 53 percent) of Fidesz voters and the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections said, as well as nearly four out of ten (37 percent) undecided voters.
Three out of ten (31 percent) respondents rather disagree with this statement . (based on party preference, there are no significant differences)
The majority of those surveyed (53 percent) do not consider criticism of the Israeli government’s policy to be anti-Semitism. This was said by the slight majority (52 and 54 percent) of Fidesz voters and voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, and almost five out of ten (47 percent) undecided voters.
Two-thirds of the respondents (67 percent) would not consider the permanent expulsion of the Palestinians from the Gaza Strip and the Israeli occupation of the territory to be acceptable. Three quarters of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections (75 percent), as well as nearly six out of ten of the Fidesz voters and undecided voters (61 percent and 57 percent), said this.
Almost six out of ten respondents (57 percent) expect that masses of Palestinians will flee to Europe. This is how nearly three quarters of Fidesz voters (72 percent) see it, as well as half of the voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections and the undecided voters (50-52 percent).
Among those who believe that masses of Palestinian refugees can be expected, eight out of ten (83 percent) respondents believe that this will lead to an increase in Islamic terrorism in Europe. This is what nine out of ten (93 percent) Fidesz voters think, as well as eight out of ten (81 percent) voters of the opposition parties cooperating in the elections, and seven out of ten (69 percent) undecided voters.
According to 35 percent of respondents, the chances of reconciliation in the region will improve and 38 percent will worsen if Israel wins the war.
More details about the results of the research can be found in the printed and online editions of Népszava. When describing the research, please also refer to Népszava .
Methodology
The survey was conducted by Publicus Institute as a part of Publicus Omnibusz, between the 12th and 15th of December 2023, polling 1003 individuals via phone, who are representative of the adult population of Hungary. The potential distortions of sampling were corrected with weighting based on the data from the 2016 KSH census data. The attributes of the surveyed accurately resemble those of the Hungarian population by their sex, age, educational attainment, regional and settlement wise composition. With this sample size, we can state with a 95 percent confidence level that the data obtained through testing would only differ by +/-3,1 percent at most from that we would have gotten when surveying all 18-year-old or older residents. The statistical error is larger however, when the distribution is configured not to all surveyed, but to certain smaller subgroups.
