Publicus Institute, by the commission of Vasárnapi Hírek [Sunday News] measured the public opinion towards the European Union, Hungary’s membership, and joining the European Public Prosecutor’s Office by surveying 1007 individuals in a representative survey between the 11-17th of October 2018. More than three-quarters of responders consider our EU membership beneficial for us. This, compared to our studies in the previous years show a clear, constantly increasing tendency. According to more than two-thirds of responders, our country would be severely impacted by a partial withdrawal of EU funding. Six out of ten surveyed think that a significant portion of Hungary’s EU development funding is stolen via domestic corruption. A predominant portion of responders also find that the EU should monitor the usage of these funds more strictly. Eight out of ten surveyed support Hungary joining the European Public Prosecutor’s Office. More than two-thirds (68 percent) would also decide in favour of joining the EU on a referendum held “this Sunday”, which is 9 percentage points higher than that surveyed 1,5 years ago.
Ezen kutatás eredményei itt olvashatóak magyarul.
More than three-quarters (79 percent) of responders consider our EU membership beneficial for us. This, compared to our studies in previous years shows a clear, constantly increasing tendency, similarly to Eurobarometer’s recent surveys. While three years ago only 57 percent thought so in this question, two years ago the number has risen to 70 percent. Although it is mostly those who are more highly educated (86-91 percent) that view the EU membership as beneficial for Hungary, more than two-thirds (68-73) of people with lower educational attainment also agree. There is no significant difference between party supporters’ and undecided voters’ viewing of the question.
Two thirds (65 percent) of surveyed think that Hungary would be severely impacted if a portion of EU funding would be withdrawn. Similarly to the previous question, there is no significant difference of opinion across party lines, while there is one with educational attainment as those with a high school or university diploma view that it would have severe effects (76-70 percent), while those with only primary or vocational education view it less so (59-53 percent) .
Less than three out of ten surveyed (28 percent) think that partially revoking EU funding would have minor effects, while only 4 percent thinks it would have none.
Six out of ten surveyed (58 percent) think that a significant portion of Hungary’s EU development funding is stolen via domestic corruption. This view is shared among all surveyed demographics, except voters of Fidesz. However, even amongst them, a third (29 percent) do share this view, and a further 47 percent of them think corruption exists, but not on such a significant level. A mere 14 percent think that there is no corruption surrounding EU funds.
Mostly MSZP and miscellaneous party voters (81 and 80 percent) view that a significant part of EU funds is stolen though corruption, but two-thirds of Jobbik and undecided voters also agree (65 and 68 percent). Only 2-3 percent of opposition and undecided voters believe that there is no corruption surrounding EU funding.
A significant majority of responders (86 percent) believe that the EU should monitor the usage of funds more rigorously. Although it is mostly MSZP and Jobbik voters (98 and 97 percent), three-quarter (76 percent) of Fidesz voters also believe that there should be an increased monitoring of funding.
After the previous results it is no surprise that eight out of ten surveyed (79 percent) supports Hungary joining the European Public Prosecutors Office, as that would mean a closer and firmer monitoring of the usage of EU funding.
Opinions are quite similar across party lineshere as well, mostly MSZP and other party voters (97 and 91 percent) support the idea, but also almost two-thirds of Fidesz voters (62 percent) as well. Joining the Public Prosecutor’s Office is supported by the vast majority of the population under 30 (90 percent), as well as even two-thirds (67 percent) those who otherwise are not in favour of joining the EU.
More than two thirds (68 percent) of people would also decide in favour of joining the EU on a referendum held “this Sunday”, which is 9 percentage points higher than that surveyed 1,5 years ago, and 20 percentage points higher than our data from 2009. These figures are very high, even when compared to the data of other EU countries. We last measured a significant increase in support two years ago, right after the Brexit referendum in Britain. Now, with the United Kingdom’s secession coming closer, and the passing of the Hungarian regime critical Sargentini report in the EU Parliament by a two-thirds majority, we can again observe a spike in the EU’s support.
While the majority of Jobbik voters would have opposed joining the EU in a referendum three years ago, ever since the Brexit referendum this rift is gone, and now voters of every party as well as those undecided share the same level of support towards joining the EU. Only the previously seen educational attainment factor upholds a rift here: the higher educated are more (73-76 percent), while the lesser educated are less (60-63 percent) in favour of supporting our membership.
Further details and findings of the study can be found on the Saturday issue of Vasárnapi Hírek. Please reference Vasárnapi Hírek as well when presenting the study.
Methodology
The survey-based study was run by Publicus Institute between 11-17 of October 2018 with the consulting of 1007 individuals representative of the adult population of Hungary via telephone, as a part of Publicus Omnibusz. The potential distortions of sampling were corrected with weighting based on the data from the 2011 KSH census. The attributes of the surveyed, sex, age, educational attainment, and regional and settlement wise composition accurately resemble those of the Hungarian population. With this sample size, we can state with a 95 percent confidence that the results would only differ by +/-3,1 percentage point at most from that we would have gotten by surveying all 18-year-old or older residents. The statistical error is larger however, when the distribution is configured not to all surveyed, but to the smaller subgroups present.
