Publicus Institute, commissioned by Népszava, measured the public opinion towards Hungary’s foreign policy and the Russo-Ukrainian war by surveying 1001 individuals in a nationwide representative poll conducted between the 7th and the 11th of March 2022.
(Ezen kutatás magyar nyelven itt olvasható.)
Two-thirds of respondents say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is more of an aggression than a defense by the Russians.
According to eight out of ten respondents, it is rather unlikely that the war will spread to Hungary. Nor is it considered likely that nuclear weapons would be deployed.
A third of respondents think a long and bloody war is most likely to ensue. Half of opposition voters, a quarter of undecided voters and a fifth of Fidesz voters agree.
Four out of ten respondents say the EU’s sanctions against Russia were appropriate, including sanctions against the Russian financial system, arms transfers and the closure of EU airspace to Russian aircraft. One-fifth of respondents say that even tougher measures would have been needed. However, a fifth of respondents also consider EU sanctions against Russia to be excessive.
According to 43 percent of respondents, Viktor Orbán should condemn Russia more harshly for attacking Ukraine. However, 45 percent say the prime minister should not do so.
At the moment, Hungary’s energy supply is highly dependent on Russia. Three-quarters of respondents rather worry that gas prices will rise significantly due to the war, and every other respondent says it was a mistake that the government had not reduced its dependence on Russia in recent years.
Two-thirds of respondents (64 percent) say Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was more of an aggression than a defense by Russia – nine out of ten (91 percent) opposition voters, six out of ten (59 percent) undecided voters and 44 percent of Fidesz voters think so.
Fifteen percent of respondents say Russia was more defensive about launching military operations against Ukraine – a quarter of Fidesz voters (24 percent), 13 percent of undecided voters and 6 percent of opposition voters think so.
Eight out of ten respondents (79 percent) say it is rather unlikely that the war will spread to Hungary. Nine out of ten (89 percent) Fidesz voters say this, as well as three-quarters of opposition voters and undecided voters (75 and 74 percent).
According to 14 percent of the respondents, it is rather likely that the war will spread to Hungary. A fifth of opposition voters (19 percent), 16 percent of undecided voters and 7 percent of Fidesz voters agree with this.
Eight out of ten respondents (81 percent) think it is rather unlikely that nuclear weapons will be deployed. Nearly equal share of respondents with different party preferences think so (79-83 percent).
10 percent of respondents believe it is rather likely that nuclear weapons will be deployed during the war – 13 percent of opposition voters, 10 percent of Fidesz voters and 8 percent of undecided voters think so.
Many people have been talking for years about the need for a common European army for the European Union. Three in ten (28 percent) respondents say that if it had happened, the EU would have been better able to deal with the crisis. This opinion is shared by nearly half of the opposition voters (46 percent) and almost a fifth of undecided voters as well as Fidesz voters (21 and 18 percent).
However, a slight majority of respondents (53 percent) say that having such a common army would not have helped in the present situation. Six out of ten Fidesz voters as well as undecided voters (60 and 56 percent) and four out of ten (41 percent) opposition voters agree with this.
A third of respondents (32 percent) believe a long and bloody war is most likely to ensue. This opinion is shared by every other (48 percent) opposition voter, a quarter of undecided voters (26 percent) and a fifth of Fidesz voters (22 percent).
Three out of ten respondents (29 percent) say it is most likely that the Russians will quickly take control of Ukraine. Four out of ten (42 percent) Fidesz voters, three out of ten (28 percent) undecided voters and one in six (16 per cent) opposition voters think so.
13 percent of respondents think Ukrainians will force Russians to back down. Nearly a fifth of opposition voters (18 percent) and a tenth of Fidesz voters as well as undecided voters (11 and 10 percent) share this opinion.
4 percent of respondents say NATO will intervene, thus World War III will break out. This is said by 4 and 4 percent of Fidesz voters and opposition voters, and 6 percent of undecided voters.
Four out of ten respondents (42 percent) say EU sanctions against Russia are appropriate, including sanctions against the Russian financial system, arms transfers and the closure of EU airspace to Russian aircraft. This view is shared by every other (49 percent) opposition voter, 44 percent of Fidesz voters and 33 percent of undecided voters.
22 percent of respondents say even stricter measures would have been needed. Four out of ten opposition voters (41 percent), one in five (22 percent) undecided voters and 7 percent of Fidesz voters think so.
However, a fifth of respondents (20 percent) consider EU sanctions against Russia excessive. A third of Fidesz voters (32 percent), a fifth of undecided voters (20 percent) and 5 percent of opposition voters think so.
Eight out of ten respondents (82 percent) rather agree with the statement that Hungary’s NATO membership means security for the country, therefore cooperation in NATO is of utmost importance. Nine out of ten (91 percent) opposition voters, eight out of ten (80 percent) Fidesz voters and three quarters (76 percent) of undecided voters share this opinion.
(According to our survey conducted in early February, if a referendum were held on whether Hungary should join NATO, seven out of ten (72 percent) respondents would vote in favour. However, one in ten (10 percent) respondents would vote against our membership and an additional 2 percent would not go to the polls. More details here.)
According to 43 percent of respondents, Viktor Orbán should condemn Russia more harshly for attacking Ukraine. However, 45 percent say the prime minister should not do so. While 90 percent of opposition voters would expect a tougher reaction, 81 percent of Fidesz voters say there is no need to take stronger actions against Russia.
Nearly every other respondent (46 percent) is rather satisfied while the other half (46 percent) is rather dissatisfied with the pro-Russian foreign policy of the Orbán government. While Fidesz voters are rather satisfied (89 percent), opposition voters are rather dissatisfied (92 percent) with Hungarian foreign policy actions. Undecided voters tend to be rather dissatisfied with pro-Russian policies (45 vs. 39 percent).
One in five (21 percent) respondents say their views have deteriorated on the Orbán government since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. This is said by nearly one in two (47 percent) opposition voters, 12 percent of undecided voters and 4 percent of Fidesz voters.
One in ten (11 percent) respondents say their views have improved on the Orbán government in recent weeks. This is the opinion of one in five (20 percent) Fidesz voters, one in ten (9 percent) undecided voters and 2 percent of opposition voters.
Nearly two-thirds of respondents (64 percent) had not changed their opinion of the Hungarian government since the start of the war. Three-quarters (74 percent) of Fidesz voters, seven out of ten (68 percent) undecided voters and every other (50 percent) opposition voters say so.
Three-quarters of respondents (76 percent) are rather afraid of a significant rise in gas prices due to the war. This opinion is shared by 85 percent of opposition voters, 80 percent of undecided voters and 65 percent of Fidesz voters.
At the moment, Hungary’s energy supply is highly dependent on Russia. One in two (47 percent) respondents say it was a mistake that the government had not reduced its dependence on Russia in recent years. Nine out of ten (89 percent) opposition voters, almost every other (46 percent) undecided voters and one in ten (10 percent) Fidesz voters share this opinion.
Further details on the results of the research can be found in the print and online editions of Népszava. When referring to this research, please also refer to Népszava.
(Ezen kutatás magyar nyelven itt olvasható)
Methodology
The survey was conducted by Publicus Institute, between the 7th and the 11th of March 2022, polling 1001 individuals via phone, who are representative of the adult population of Hungary. The potential distortions of sampling were corrected with weighting based on the data from the 2016 KSH census data. The attributes of the surveyed accurately resemble those of the Hungarian population by their sex, age, educational attainment, regional and settlement wise composition. With this sample size, we can state with a 95 percent confidence level that the data obtained through testing would only differ by +/-3,1 percent at most from that we would have gotten when surveying all 18 year old or older residents. The statistical error is larger however, when the distribution is configured not to all surveyed, but to certain smaller subgroups.
