Publicus Institute conducted a national representative poll of 1014 people between 04-07 June, asking people about the Russian-Ukrainian war.
(Ezen kutatás magyar nyelven itt olvasható.)
Nearly nine out of ten respondents said that the Hungarian defence forces in their current state are not capable of defending the country on their own without NATO in the event of an attack.
Eight out of ten say that the government’s claim that the Hungarian armed forces have become the “dominant force in the region” is untrue.
Six out of ten respondents do not see a chance that NATO will be attacked by Russia in the current situation, so that Hungary as a NATO member would be drawn into the conflict.
Two out of ten respondents believe that there are currently countries that pose a direct, open military threat to Hungary’s borders. Of these, Ukraine was named by one in two respondents and Russia by one in three
Almost half of the respondents think that it is rather useful for Hungary’s own security that the EU and NATO are supporting Ukraine’s war of defence with money and weapons, while almost half think it is rather unfavourable for Hungary’s own security.
Two thirds of respondents would rather not fight for their country if there would be a war involving Hungary. If Hungary were to attack another country, nine out of ten respondents would prefer not to fight in such a war. If Hungary were attacked by another country, six out of ten would prefer not to fight to defend their country.
Nearly nine out of ten (86%) of those surveyed believe that the Hungarian defence forces are currently not capable of defending the country on their own without NATO in the event of an attack. This is the opinion of almost all (96 percent) of the voters of the opposition parties that co-operated in the elections, almost nine out of ten (85 percent) of the undecided voters and seven out of ten (71 percent) Fidesz voters.
Seven percent of respondents said the country is capable of defending itself on its own without NATO. This was the view of 14 percent of Fidesz voters, 7 percent of undecided voters and 2 percent of voters of opposition parties who cooperated in the elections.
Eight out of ten (80 percent) respondents believe that the government’s claim that the Hungarian armed forces have become the “dominant force in the region” is untrue. This is the view of almost all (97%) of the voters of the opposition parties who co-operated in the elections, eight out of ten (80%) of undecided voters and one in two (51%) of undecided voters.
Eight percent of respondents believe that the government’s statement is true. This is the view of 25 percent of Fidesz voters, 5 percent of undecided voters and 1 percent of voters of opposition parties that cooperated in the elections.
Nearly three in ten (27%) of those surveyed believe that the combat/defence capabilities of the Hungarian Defence Forces are stronger than they were ten years ago. This is the opinion of six out of ten (59 percent) Fidesz voters, a quarter of undecided voters (23 percent) and one in ten (10 percent) of voters of opposition parties who cooperated in the elections.
A quarter of respondents (25 percent) believe that the combat/defence capabilities of the Hungarian Defence Forces are weaker than ten years ago. This is the view of slightly more than a third (36%) of voters of the opposition parties that co-operated in the elections, a quarter (26%) of undecided voters and 6% of Fidesz voters.
Three in ten (29 percent) of those polled believe that the combat/defence capability of the Hungarian defence forces is the same as it was 10 years ago. This was the opinion of slightly more than a third (36 percent) of voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, a quarter (26 percent) of undecided voters and a fifth (19 percent) of Fidesz voters.
Nearly one out of six (17%) respondents believe that the morale of the Hungarian Defence Forces is better than it was ten years ago. This is the view of one in two (48%) Fidesz voters, one in ten (11%) undecided voters and 3% of voters of opposition parties who cooperated in the elections.
A third of those polled believe that the morale of the Hungarian defence forces is worse than 10 years ago. This is the opinion of almost half (46%) of the voters of the opposition parties who co-operated in the elections, a third (34%) of the undecided voters and 8% of Fidesz voters.
Nearly three in ten (28 percent) say that the morale of the Hungarian defence forces is the same as it was 10 years ago. This was the opinion of three in ten (31 percent) of voters of the opposition parties who cooperated in the elections, three in ten (29 percent) of undecided voters and one fifth (20 percent) of Fidesz voters.
One in two (49%) respondents think that the size of the Hungarian Defence Forces should be larger than it is now. This is the opinion of two thirds of Fidesz voters (66%), one in two undecided voters (49%) and four in ten (40%) of voters of opposition parties who co-operated in the elections.
Nearly four in ten (37 percent) do not think there is a need to increase the size of the Hungarian Defence Forces. This is the view of one in two (51%) voters of the opposition parties that co-operated in the elections, one in three (35%) of undecided voters and one in six (17%) Fidesz voters.
Nearly one in two (46%) of those surveyed said that the number of reserve personnel in the armed forces should be increased. Two thirds of Fidesz voters (65 percent), four out of ten undecided voters (41 percent) and four out of ten voters of opposition parties that have cooperated in elections (40 percent) think so.
Four out of ten (39 percent) say that there is no need to increase the number of reserve troops in the armed forces. This was the view of one in two (49%) of voters of opposition parties who co-operated in the elections, 44% of undecided voters and 14% of Fidesz voters.
One out of eight (13%) of those under 50 would volunteer for the Hungarian army in the event of an external attack on Hungary. A fifth of Fidesz voters (20 percent), 16 percent of undecided voters and 8 percent of voters of opposition parties who cooperated in the elections said the same.
One in six (17%) respondents would only join the army in the event of an imminent threat. This was the view of a quarter (25 percent) of voters from opposition parties that co-operated in the elections and just over a tenth (11-11 percent) of Fidesz voters and undecided voters.
Seven in ten (68%) said they would not volunteer for the Hungarian army in the event of an external attack on Hungary. There is not a big difference in the answers in terms of party preferences (65-67-69 percent)
Among those under 50, 4% of respondents said they were interested in the possibility of becoming a professional soldier or volunteer reserve in the Hungarian army. 7% of respondents think this is a viable option, but have not yet given it serious thought. 86% of respondents had not considered this option.
Most of those with up to 8 years of general education (25 percent) and those with a high school diploma (13 percent) said they were either interested in the possibility or could see themselves going into professional military service or voluntary reserve service.
Six out of ten (62%) respondents see no chance in the current situation that NATO will be attacked by Russia, so Hungary as a NATO member will be drawn into the conflict. This was the opinion of seven out of ten (68%) voters of the opposition parties that co-operated in the elections, six out of ten (58%) Fidesz voters and one in two (51%) undecided voters.
A third of those polled (33 percent) see a chance in the current situation that NATO will be attacked by Russia, so that Hungary as a NATO member will be drawn into the conflict. This was the view of nearly four in ten Fidesz voters and undecided voters (36-36 percent) and three out of ten voters of opposition parties that cooperated in the elections (30 percent).
Two out of ten (20 percent) of respondents believe that there is currently a country that poses a direct, open military threat to Hungary’s borders. This is the view of a third of Fidesz voters (32%), a fifth of undecided voters (21%) and 13% of voters of opposition parties who co-operated in the elections.
Among those who think there is a country that poses a direct, open military threat to Hungary’s borders, about one in two respondents named Ukraine (52 percent), one in three (35 percent) named Russia (7 percent named the US and 6 percent named Romania).
Among those who think there is a country that poses a direct, open military threat to Hungary’s borders, Fidesz voters (74 percent) were the most likely to say that it is Ukraine (44 percent of undecided voters and 27 percent of voters of opposition parties who cooperated in the elections also said this).
Among those who believe there is a country that poses a direct, open military threat to Hungary’s borders, voters of opposition parties who cooperated in the elections (56 percent) were the most likely to say that this country is Russia (52 percent of undecided voters and 12 percent of Fidesz voters also said this).
Four out of ten (43%) of those polled believe it is possible to achieve Russia’s withdrawal from Ukraine through negotiations and diplomacy. Seven out of ten (68 percent) Fidesz voters, four out of ten (43 percent) undecided voters and three out of ten (30 percent) voters of opposition parties who cooperated in the elections think so.
Four percent of respondents think that this goal can be achieved by military force, by supporting the Ukrainian army. This is the view of 7 percent of voters of the opposition parties that co-operated in the elections, 2 percent of undecided voters and 1 percent of Fidesz voters.
One in six (16 percent) of those polled believe that both of the above factors together are needed for Russia to withdraw from Ukraine. This was the view of a quarter (23 percent) of voters from the opposition parties that co-operated in the election, one in seven (14 percent) undecided voters and 5 percent of Fidesz voters.
One in ten (10 percent) said that Russia’s withdrawal was not really the goal. This is the view of one in seven (14 percent) of voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections, 8 percent of undecided voters and 5 percent of Fidesz voters.
One in five (19 percent) of those polled believe it is impossible to get Russia to withdraw. This is the view of one fifth (21 percent) of voters of the opposition parties that co-operated in the elections, one fifth (19 percent) of undecided voters and 15 percent of Fidesz voters.
Almost half of the respondents (45%) said that it is rather useful for Hungary’s security, while the other half (48%) said that it is rather not useful for Hungary’s security that the EU and NATO are supporting Ukraine’s war with money and weapons.
While the majority of Fidesz voters (83% to 11%) consider it rather not useful, most voters of the opposition parties that cooperated in the elections (71% to 24%) consider it rather useful. Among the undecided voters, the majority (54% against 34%) think that the EU and NATO supporting Ukraine’s war of defence with money and weapons is rather unhelpful for Hungary’s own security.
Two-thirds (64%) of those polled would prefer not to fight for their country if there were a war involving Hungary. In June 2022, this figure was 45%, so the proportions have reversed significantly.
If Hungary were to attack another country, nine out of ten (91%) respondents would prefer not to fight in such a war. In June 2022, the figure was 83 percent.
If Hungary were attacked by another country, six out of ten (62%) would prefer not to fight to defend their country. In June 2022, the reverse was true (62% said they would fight to defend their country).
More details on the results of the survey can be found in the print and online editions of Népszava. When reporting on the survey, please also refer to Népszava.
Methodology
The survey was conducted by Publicus Institute as a part of Publicus Omnibusz, between the 4th and the 7th of May 2023, polling 1014 individuals via phone, who are representative of the adult population of Hungary. The potential distortions of sampling were corrected with weighting based on the data from the 2016 KSH census data. The attributes of the surveyed accurately resemble those of the Hungarian population by their sex, age, educational attainment, regional and settlement wise composition. With this sample size, we can state with a 95 percent confidence level that the data obtained through testing would only differ by +/-3,1 percent at most from that we would have gotten when surveying all 18 year old or older residents. The statistical error is larger however, when the distribution is configured not to all surveyed, but to certain smaller subgroups.
