Our poll proves most accurate for the 2026 Parliamentary Elections
Congratulations to our colleagues for their outstanding work! This achievement is particularly remarkable considering that Publicus Institute’s research also proved to be the most accurate during the 2024 municipal elections—repeating our success from 2019!
Commissioned by Népszava, Publicus Institute conducted a nationally representative public opinion poll between April 7–9, 2026, surveying 1,004 respondents via telephone. The study examined party support and voter expectations regarding the 2026 parliamentary elections.
The official domestic national list results—measured by public opinion polls—stand as follows at a 98.93% processing rate (prior to the counting of votes from abroad, relocated voters, and polling stations where these ballots are mixed):
The results of our final poll, conducted 3–5 days before the election—which most accurately reflects the election outcome—were published on our website and in the print and online editions of Népszava on April 10.
A comparison of the actual results and our research shows the following:
✅ Tisza: 52.79% — 52.46% (Difference: 0.33 ❗ percentage points)
✅ Fidesz: 38.75% — 38.88% (Difference: 0.13 ❗ percentage points)
✅ Mi Hazánk (Our Homeland): 5.81% — 5.43% (Difference: 0.38 ❗ percentage points)
✅ DK: 1.15% — 1.64% (Difference: 0.49 ❗ percentage points)
✅ Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP): 0.81% — 1.59% (Difference: 0.78 ❗ percentage points)
✅ The ranking of the parties is flawless.
✅ The prediction of which parties would secure mandates was perfectly accurate.
With these results, our research was not only the most accurate among all pollsters, but we measured every party’s result well within the +/- 3.1 percentage point margin of error—in fact, within a 1 percentage point range.
A comparative analysis by Portfolio reached a similar conclusion. “Publicus proved to be almost perfectly accurate in forecasting the list results of the 2026 parliamentary elections,” they wrote, based on research results rounded to the nearest whole number. Intriguingly, data provided with two-decimal precision indicates an even higher level of accuracy.
“However, the ultimate question was what share of the vote Fidesz and the Tisza Party could expect. In this ‘competition,’ Publicus also performed the best,” the portal noted.
